PuckSleuthMatchup preview
Our estimates, not betting advice. In testing, the team we gave the better chance won about 57% of the time.
Chance to win · last 10: 4-3-1
Likely goalie Yaroslav Askarov 5 starts, .864, +0.0 GSAx
Likely to score
Starters come from public reports once they are out (the link shows the source); until then, the team's busiest goalie this season. Scoring chances use each team's last lineup.
Matchups to watch
Where one team's strength (top 10 in the league) meets the other's weakness (bottom 10).
- MTL's 5-on-5 offense (9th) against SJS's 5-on-5 defense (25th): an edge for MTL.
- SJS's power play (10th) against MTL's penalty kill (23rd): an edge for SJS.
- SJS's slot shooting (31st) runs into MTL's slot defense (7th): an edge for MTL.
- MTL's rush attack (3rd) against SJS's rush defense (25th): an edge for MTL.
- SJS's forecheck (25th) runs into MTL's puck security (3rd): an edge for MTL.
Side by side
This season, with league ranks (1st = best). The better number is in bold.
| SJS | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| −0.88(27th) | Goal difference per game | −0.38(22nd) |
| 40.4%(29th) | Expected goals share (5v5) | 52.9%(12th) |
| 1.94(31st) | Chances created (5v5) | 2.84(9th) |
| 2.86(25th) | Chances allowed (5v5) | 2.53(17th) |
| 2.7(27th) | High-danger chances (5v5) | 3.9(19th) |
| 4.9(26th) | High-danger chances against (5v5) | 3.7(13th) |
| 23.1%(11th) | Power play % | 14.8%(25th) |
| 80.8%(16th) | Penalty kill % | 82.3%(12th) |
| +0.27(13th) | Goals saved above expected per game | −0.38(25th) |
| −0.08(16th) | Finishing per game | −0.03(14th) |
| 3.13(7th) | Penalties taken per game | 5.25(32nd) |
| −1.96(27th) | Team Sleuth Rating per game | −0.18(20th) |
SJS scouting report
Strengths
- + Disciplined
Weaknesses
- − Gives up a lot of chances at 5-on-5
- − Lets shooters into the slot
- − Gets beaten on the rush
- − Its giveaways turn into chances
- − Struggles to create chances
- − Kept to the outside
- − Rarely forces turnovers
- − Leaky penalty kill
MTL scouting report
Strengths
- + Keeps shooters out of the slot
- + Safe with the puck
Weaknesses
- − Gives up rebound chances
- − Goaltending is costing games
- − Takes a lot of penalties