PuckSleuthMatchup preview
Our estimates, not betting advice. In testing, the team we gave the better chance won about 57% of the time.
Chance to win · last 10: 4-3-2
Likely goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 6 starts, .860, −4.3 GSAx
Likely to score
- Tage Thompson39%
- Jack Quinn34%
- Zach Benson32%
Starters come from public reports once they are out (the link shows the source); until then, the team's busiest goalie this season. Scoring chances use each team's last lineup.
Matchups to watch
Where one team's strength (top 10 in the league) meets the other's weakness (bottom 10).
- BUF's rush attack (23rd) runs into PHI's rush defense (7th): an edge for PHI.
- PHI's rebound chances (28th) runs into BUF's rebound control (4th): an edge for BUF.
- PHI's forecheck (30th) runs into BUF's puck security (4th): an edge for BUF.
Side by side
This season, with league ranks (1st = best). The better number is in bold.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| −2.00(30th) | Goal difference per game | −0.78(26th) |
| 33.0%(32nd) | Expected goals share (5v5) | 52.0%(14th) |
| 1.63(32nd) | Chances created (5v5) | 2.73(13th) |
| 3.31(31st) | Chances allowed (5v5) | 2.52(16th) |
| 1.8(32nd) | High-danger chances (5v5) | 4.5(12th) |
| 5.1(27th) | High-danger chances against (5v5) | 3.8(16th) |
| 10.3%(31st) | Power play % | 9.1%(32nd) |
| 83.8%(10th) | Penalty kill % | 64.5%(30th) |
| +0.32(8th) | Goals saved above expected per game | −0.47(27th) |
| −0.76(31st) | Finishing per game | −0.12(18th) |
| 4.10(25th) | Penalties taken per game | 3.67(17th) |
| −5.92(32nd) | Team Sleuth Rating per game | −0.15(19th) |
PHI scouting report
Strengths
- + Rarely beaten on the rush
- + Goaltending is stealing games
Weaknesses
- − Gives up a lot of chances at 5-on-5
- − Gives up rebound chances
- − Struggles to create chances
- − Kept to the outside
- − Rarely forces turnovers
- − Takes a lot of penalties
BUF scouting report
Strengths
- + Clears rebounds
- + Safe with the puck
Weaknesses
- − Toothless power play
- − Goaltending is costing games