PuckSleuth
74Cap hit
$8.5M
8.2% of $104M cap
Term
2 yrs
Through 2027-28, then UFA
Clause
NMC
Surplus value
+$2.549M
vs. $11.049M market estimate
Confirmed by the public signing announcement · source
2026-27 regular season
GP
1
Goals
0
0.0% shooting
Assists
0
0 primary
Points
0
0.00 per game
TOI/GP
23:41
PP 9:08 · PK 0:00
xGF%
40.1
5v5, -14.1 vs. last yr
Game Score
-0.39
per game, goals above average
Faceoff %
—
Plus/minus
-2
Blocks 2 · Hits 1
Game log
Last 5 games · NHL API
| Game | G | A | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | PP | PK | FO | OZS% | GV | TK | +/- | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 @ NYR · L 5-1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 23:41 | 9:08 | 0:00 | — | 83 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -0.39 |
| May 14 vs VGK · L 5-1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23:02 | 3:46 | 0:41 | — | 67 | 5 | 3 | -1 | -0.29 |
| May 12 @ VGK · OTL 3-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 26:16 | 1:58 | 0:36 | — | 100 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -0.37 |
| May 10 vs VGK · W 4-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:39 | 2:24 | 0:40 | — | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -0.24 |
| May 8 vs VGK · L 6-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 21:02 | 2:14 | 0:27 | — | 100 | 1 | 1 | -4 | -0.25 |
GS = our Game Score, goals above average. FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.
Advanced metrics
5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 1,176 min · percentile vs. NHL defensemen
81st percentile
90th percentile
78th percentile
90th percentile
92nd percentile
88th percentile
81st percentile
93rd percentile
64th percentile
97th percentile
81st percentile
95th percentile
64th percentile
74th percentile
xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.
Play styleElite offensive playmaker
Trait percentiles vs. NHL defensemen · 2025-26
Carlson dominates the setup game with elite playmaking and shooting volume, orchestrating offense from the back end with confidence. He compensates for modest physicality and defensive tools through relentless puck management and rush control, though his perimeter shot profile suggests he values possession over scoring chances.
- Shooting volume
- 94
- Playmaking
- 96
- Zone entries(est.)
- 88
- Forechecking
- 90
- Physicality
- 16
- Defensive impact
- 40
- Puck management
- 28
- Speed
- 65
Where he shoots from
Slot 14% · Mid-range 27% · Perimeter 60%(244 unblocked shots)
Strengths
- Playmaking at the 96th percentile, generating offense as a primary set-up man
- Shooting volume at 94th percentile with 244 unblocked shots, constantly threatening
- Rush chances at 88th percentile, consistently entering the zone with speed and control
Watch-outs
- Physicality at just 16th percentile, avoiding contact rather than engaging defenders
- Puck management at 28th percentile, occasionally loose with possession transitions
- Defensive impact at 40th percentile, not a primary shot-suppression force
Similar style: Victor Hedman (TBL), Morgan Rielly (TOR)
Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.
Where his Game Score comes from
2025-26 · 71 GP · goals above average
Season total +7.8 goals, or +0.11 per game.
- Even strength offense
- +2.8
- Even strength defense
- -0.9
- Power play
- +0.5
- Penalty kill
- -0.8
- Finishing
- +2.0
- Playmaking
- +6.1
- Penalties
- -1.9
Game Score adds up a player's impact in goals compared with an average player given the same ice time: his share of expected goals for and against at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill, plus finishing (goals minus expected goals), primary assists, penalties drawn and taken, and faceoffs. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.
By season
Regular season
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI/GP | FO% | GS/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 23:41 | — | -0.39 |
| 2025-26 | ANA, WSH | 71 | 14 | 46 | 60 | +9 | 153 | 23:10 | — | +0.11 |
| 2024-25 | WSH | 79 | 5 | 46 | 51 | +17 | 167 | 23:34 | — | +0.02 |
| 2023-24 | WSH | 82 | 10 | 42 | 52 | -7 | 176 | 25:54 | — | -0.02 |
| 2022-23 | WSH | 40 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -7 | 124 | 23:23 | — | +0.04 |
Latest news
Headlines from news outlets and team blogs
- Facing Capitals for first time with Lightning will be ‘weird’ for Carlson
NHL.com · Oct 3
- New Lightning defenseman John Carlson has fit in quickly
Orlando Sentinel · Oct 2
Sentiment & chatter
Fans
—
Beat writers
—
Media
—
Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.
Recent Game Scores
Last 10 games · goals above average
Average -0.13 per game over these 10.
Skating · NHL EDGE
2025-26, as of Oct 2
- Top speed
- 22.5 mph
- 84th pct
- 20+ mph bursts
- 32
- Hardest shot
- 99.8 mph
- 96th pct
- Distance
- 219.7 mi
- OZ time
- 43.4%
- 77th pct
- DZ time
- 39.0%
Age curve
NHL defensemen · production index
At 36, defensemen typically produce 62% of their peak (age 24). His contract runs through age 37, when the typical level is 59%.
From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.
Contract by season
2 seasons left
| Season | Team | Cap hit | % of cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | TBL | $8.5M | 8.2% |
| 2027-28 | TBL | $8.5M | 7.5% |
UFA after 2027-28. NMC. $17M in cap hits left. % of cap uses each season's ceiling where the league has set one ($104M this season, $113.5M in 2027-28).