Adam Novotny

Surplus valueiSurplus value is what his play would be worth on the open market minus his cap hit. Positive means he is a bargain; negative means he is paid more than his play is worth. How we estimate it: (1) project his WAR for a full 84-game season mostly from this season and last season, with the season before counting a little, pulled slightly toward replacement level when he has played few games, and adjusted for his age using our age curve; (2) turn that into a market cap hit using what veterans 27 and older at his position, with similar projected WAR and scoring, are paid as a share of the salary cap; goalies are valued by rank instead: a goalie projected 5th-best is worth what the 5th-highest-paid veteran goalie earns, since goalie numbers swing a lot from year to year; (3) subtract his actual cap hit. Entry-level and young players' contracts are left out of the market comparison, since they are not set by the open market. Needs 40 games over three seasons.

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needs 40 recent games