PuckSleuthMatchup preview
Our estimates, not betting advice. In testing, the team we gave the better chance won about 57% of the time.
Chance to win · last 10: 5-2-2
Likely goalie Jacob Markstrom 6 starts, .897, +0.6 GSAx
Likely to score
Starters come from public reports once they are out (the link shows the source); until then, the team's busiest goalie this season. Scoring chances use each team's last lineup.
Matchups to watch
Where one team's strength (top 10 in the league) meets the other's weakness (bottom 10).
- OTT's 5-on-5 offense (27th) runs into FLA's 5-on-5 defense (1st): an edge for FLA.
- OTT's power play (3rd) against FLA's penalty kill (29th): an edge for OTT.
- OTT's slot shooting (28th) runs into FLA's slot defense (1st): an edge for FLA.
- FLA's rush attack (24th) runs into OTT's rush defense (6th): an edge for OTT.
- OTT's rebound chances (26th) runs into FLA's rebound control (6th): an edge for FLA.
Side by side
This season, with league ranks (1st = best). The better number is in bold.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| +0.56(11th) | Goal difference per game | +0.11(16th) |
| 56.0%(6th) | Expected goals share (5v5) | 48.3%(21st) |
| 2.62(17th) | Chances created (5v5) | 2.17(27th) |
| 2.06(1st) | Chances allowed (5v5) | 2.32(8th) |
| 4.9(9th) | High-danger chances (5v5) | 3.3(23rd) |
| 3.1(4th) | High-danger chances against (5v5) | 3.4(8th) |
| 20.9%(13th) | Power play % | 12.8%(27th) |
| 80.6%(17th) | Penalty kill % | 79.4%(19th) |
| +0.05(19th) | Goals saved above expected per game | +0.32(9th) |
| −0.11(17th) | Finishing per game | −0.23(21st) |
| 4.33(29th) | Penalties taken per game | 4.33(28th) |
| +1.81(9th) | Team Sleuth Rating per game | −1.38(26th) |
FLA scouting report
Strengths
- + Allows few chances at 5-on-5
- + Keeps shooters out of the slot
- + Clears rebounds
- + Forces turnovers
- + Dangerous power play
Weaknesses
- − Kept to the outside
- − Leaky penalty kill
- − Takes a lot of penalties
OTT scouting report
Strengths
- + Allows few chances at 5-on-5
- + Rarely beaten on the rush
- + Safe with the puck
- + Dangerous power play
Weaknesses
- − Struggles to create chances
- − Takes a lot of penalties