PuckSleuth
86Toronto Maple Leafs · Right wing · Shoots R
Kirill Marchenko
Age 26 · 6'3" · 201 lb · Born in Barnaul, RUS
Cap hit
$3.85M
3.7% of $104M cap
Term
1 yr
Through 2026-27, then a 6-year extension at $12.5M
Clause
None
Surplus value
+$5.393M
vs. $9.243M market estimate
Confirmed by the public signing announcement · source
2026-27 regular season
GP
3
Goals
1
11.1% shooting
Assists
1
0 primary
Points
2
0.67 per game
TOI/GP
19:17
PP 4:15 · PK 0:00
Plus/minus
-1
Hits
8
Blocks 1
PIM
6
Game Score
+0.69
per game
Game log
Last 5 games · NHL API
| Game | G | A | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | PP | PK | FO | OZS% | GV | TK | +/- | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 vs OTT · L 3-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19:26 | 4:37 | 0:00 | — | 83 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.92 |
| Sep 30 vs NYI · W 2-1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18:16 | 4:43 | 0:00 | — | 67 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.12 |
| Sep 29 vs MTL · L 3-2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20:08 | 3:25 | 0:00 | — | 100 | 1 | 0 | +1 | +1.02 |
| Apr 14 vs WSH · L 2-1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:36 | 0:02 | — | 100 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +0.08 |
| Apr 12 vs BOS · L 3-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 22:28 | 5:29 | 0:00 | — | 80 | 2 | 0 | -1 | +0.01 |
GS = our Game Score (credit for everything he did; goals and assists count most). FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.
Advanced metrics
5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 1,102 min · percentile vs. NHL forwards
68th percentile
50th percentile
50th percentile
77th percentile
80th percentile
75th percentile
86th percentile
86th percentile
48th percentile
82nd percentile
73rd percentile
69th percentile
81st percentile
97th percentile
xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.
Play styleScoring winger
Trait percentiles vs. NHL wingers · 2025-26
Marchenko is a pure offensive talent who stretches defenses with exceptional speed and generates heavy volume from his shot. He excels as a shooter and playmaker but offers little value in pursuit and defensive work.
- Shooting volume
- 91
- Playmaking
- 75
- Zone entries(est.)
- 45
- Forechecking
- 31
- Physicality
- 29
- Defensive impact
- 13
- Puck management
- 43
- Speed
- 96
Where he shoots from
Slot 34% · Mid-range 53% · Perimeter 13%(334 unblocked shots)
Strengths
- Elite speed (96th percentile) creates separation for chances
- Prolific shooting volume (91st percentile) produces constant offense
- Strong playmaking (75th percentile) keeps plays alive
Watch-outs
- Weak forechecking (31st percentile) limits puck pursuit
- Poor defensive impact (13th percentile) leaves vulnerabilities
- Modest rush chances (45th percentile) for his speed level
Similar style: Brandon Hagel (TBL), Dylan Guenther (UTA)
Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.
Career stats
From the NHL's player records
No NHL playoff games yet.
Seasons traded mid-year show one row per team.
Latest news
Headlines from news outlets and team blogs
- 'Amazing feeling': Marchenko scores first with Leafs; looking 'dominant' since trade
TSN · Oct 4
- Matthews and Marchenko: Something Might Be Starting Here
Yardbarker · Oct 4
- Oilers could be the perfect trade partner for the Flyers right now
broadstreethockey.com · Oct 4
- Marchenko’s First Goal With the Maple Leafs Could Spark a 30-Goal Season
The Hockey Writers · Oct 4
- Kirill Marchenko on first goal with Maple Leafs: ‘I would be most happy if we win’
The Leafs Nation · Oct 4
Sentiment & chatter
Fans
—
Beat writers
—
Media
—
Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.
Recent Game Scores
Last 10 games · goals above average
Average +0.59 per game over these 10.
Where his Game Score comes from
+0.92 per game
2025-26 · 76 GP
Season total +69.8, or +0.92 per game.
- Scoring
- +51.0
- Shooting
- +16.4
- 5-on-5 goals
- +2.1
- Defense
- -0.7
- Penalty kill
- +0.1
- Physical play
- +3.2
- Puck battles
- -2.5
- Penalties
- +0.2
Game Score gives credit for everything a player does in a game. Goals (1.0) and assists (0.7 primary, 0.5 secondary) count most; shots, blocks, hits, takeaways, penalties drawn, faceoff wins, killing penalties, and holding down the other team's chances add to it. Only mistakes subtract: goals against at 5-on-5, giveaways, penalties taken, faceoff losses, and allowing more chances than an average player would. A player who is there to defend or kill penalties is not marked down for not scoring. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.
Skating · NHL EDGE
2026-27, as of Oct 2
- Top speed
- 22.1 mph
- 92nd pct
- 20+ mph bursts
- 6
- Hardest shot
- 81.5 mph
- 83rd pct
- Distance
- 6.2 mi
- OZ time
- 47.9%
- 83rd pct
- DZ time
- 35.7%
Usage
Last game: vs OTT, Oct 3
Line 1 with Jack Roslovic and Auston Matthews (8:10 together at 5-on-5) · PP1
From the NHL's shift chart.
Age curve
At 26: 98% of peak
NHL forwards · production index
At 26, forwards typically produce 98% of their peak (age 24).
From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.
Contract by season
7 seasons left
| Season | Team | Cap hit | % of cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | TOR | $3.85M | 3.7% |
| 2027-28New deal | TOR | $12.5M | 11.0% |
| 2028-29 | TOR | $12.5M | — |
| 2029-30 | TOR | $12.5M | — |
| 2030-31 | TOR | $12.5M | — |
| 2031-32 | TOR | $12.5M | — |
| 2032-33 | TOR | $12.5M | — |
$78.85M in cap hits left. % of cap uses each season's ceiling where the league has set one ($104M this season, $113.5M in 2027-28).