PuckSleuth
Nikita Grebenkin17

Philadelphia Flyers · Right wing · Shoots L

Nikita Grebenkin

Age 23 · 6'2" · 210 lb · Born in Serov, RUS

Cap hit

$1.1M

1.1% of $104M cap

Term

2 yrs

Through 2027-28, then RFA

Clause

None

Surplus value

+$1.262M

vs. $2.362M market estimate

Contract details from our records; public announcement not yet matched

2025-26 regular season

GP

55

Goals

4

12.5% shooting

Assists

10

6 primary

Points

14

0.25 per game

TOI/GP

11:17

PP 0:12 · PK 0:00

Plus/minus

-7

Hits

86

Blocks 17

PIM

46

Game Score

+0.27

per game

Game log

Last 5 games · NHL API

GameGASOGHITBLKTOIPPPKFOOZS%GVTK+/-GS
Mar 21
@ SJS · W 4-1
000008:550:000:00—4010+1+0.11
Mar 19
@ LAK · W 4-3
0001010:440:000:00—10010-1-0.19
Mar 18
@ ANA · W 3-2
000008:470:000:00—10001+1+0.21
Mar 14
vs CBJ · OTL 2-1
0021111:550:000:00—50000+0.41
Mar 12
@ MIN · W 3-2
0002012:500:070:00—60010+0.17

GS = our Game Score (credit for everything he did; goals and assists count most). FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.

Advanced metrics

5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 598 min · percentile vs. NHL forwards

xGF%47.7%

37th percentile

Relative xGF%-2.5

32nd percentile

HDCF%44.7%

25th percentile

CF%48.2%

39th percentile

Relative CF%+1.1

66th percentile

FF%47.5%

33rd percentile

GF%43.2%

26th percentile

CF/6049.8

17th percentile

CA/6053.6

78th percentile

ixG/600.41

2nd percentile

Goals above expected-0.1

58th percentile

IPP68.4%

64th percentile

PDO97.6

24th percentile

OZS%50.7%

46th percentile

xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.

Play styleDefensive-minded grinder

Trait percentiles vs. NHL wingers · 2025-26

Grebenkin is a physical, aggressive forechecking winger who plays a heavy-hitting game but struggles to initiate offense or create scoring chances. He's a low-volume shooter who rarely generates quality opportunities, making him most valuable as a depth forward focused on effort and physicality.

PhysicalForecheckingLow-volume scorerDefensive
Shooting volume
0
Playmaking
49
Zone entries(est.)
18
Forechecking
73
Physicality
71
Defensive impact
59
Puck management
42
Speed
26

Where he shoots from

Slot 44% · Mid-range 38% · Perimeter 18%(45 unblocked shots)

Strengths

  • Aggressive forechecking at 73rd percentile drives puck recovery and pressure
  • Physicality at 71st percentile enables hard-hitting, punishing style
  • Solid defensive impact at 59th percentile minimizes chances against

Watch-outs

  • Shooting volume at 0th percentile shows almost no offensive volume
  • Rush chances at 18th percentile indicates difficulty entering zone with speed
  • Speed at 26th percentile limits separation and breakaway potential

Similar style: Ondrej Palat (NYI), Andrew Mangiapane (CHI)

Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.

Career stats

From the NHL's player records

No NHL playoff games yet.

Seasons traded mid-year show one row per team.

Latest news

Headlines from news outlets and team blogs

Sentiment & chatter

Fans

—

Beat writers

—

Media

—

Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.

Recent Game Scores

Last 10 games · goals above average

Average +0.24 per game over these 10.

Where his Game Score comes from

+0.27 per game

2025-26 · 55 GP

Season total +14.6, or +0.27 per game.

Scoring
+10.2
Shooting
+2.4
5-on-5 goals
-0.9
Defense
+0.4
Physical play
+2.6
Puck battles
-1.1
Penalties
+0.9

Game Score gives credit for everything a player does in a game. Goals (1.0) and assists (0.7 primary, 0.5 secondary) count most; shots, blocks, hits, takeaways, penalties drawn, faceoff wins, killing penalties, and holding down the other team's chances add to it. Only mistakes subtract: goals against at 5-on-5, giveaways, penalties taken, faceoff losses, and allowing more chances than an average player would. A player who is there to defend or kill penalties is not marked down for not scoring. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.

Skating · NHL EDGE

2025-26, as of Oct 2

Top speed
22.0 mph
39th pct
20+ mph bursts
31
Hardest shot
82.7 mph
34th pct
Distance
101.1 mi
OZ time
41.7%
45th pct
DZ time
39.5%

Usage

Last game: vs CAR, Oct 3

Not on a regular line last game.

From the NHL's shift chart.

Age curve

At 23: 99% of peak

NHL forwards · production index

202937

At 23, forwards typically produce 99% of their peak (age 24). His contract runs through age 24, when the typical level is 100%.

From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.

Contract by season

2 seasons left

SeasonTeamCap hit% of cap
2026-27PHI$1.1M1.1%
2027-28PHI$1.1M1.0%

RFA after 2027-28. $2.2M in cap hits left. % of cap uses each season's ceiling where the league has set one ($104M this season, $113.5M in 2027-28).