PuckSleuth
Brandon Carlo25

St. Louis Blues · Defense · Shoots R

Brandon Carlo

Age 29 · 6'5" · 214 lb · Born in Colorado Springs, USA

Cap hit

$3.485M

15% retained by previous team

Term

1 yr

Through 2026-27, then UFA

Clause

M-NTC

Surplus value

+$233K

vs. $4.333M market estimate

Confirmed by the public signing announcement · source

2026-27 regular season

GP

1

Goals

0

Assists

0

0 primary

Points

0

0.00 per game

TOI/GP

15:27

PP 0:00 · PK 3:26

xGF%

65.6

5v5, +21.1 vs. last yr

Game Score

+0.18

per game

Faceoff %

—

Plus/minus

0

Blocks 1 · Hits 1

Game log

Last 5 games · NHL API

GameGASOGHITBLKTOIPPPKFOOZS%GVTK+/-GS
Oct 2
@ DAL · W 4-0
0001115:270:003:26—0100+0.18
Apr 8
vs WSH · L 4-0
0010212:070:012:22—5001-2-0.03
Apr 4
@ LAK · OTL 7-6
0011319:150:005:28—20100+0.04
Apr 2
@ SJS · L 4-1
0011117:570:002:01—2200-2-0.11
Mar 30
@ ANA · W 5-4
0010121:500:004:37—60010+0.14

GS = our Game Score (credit for everything he did; goals and assists count most). FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.

Advanced metrics

5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 865 min · percentile vs. NHL defensemen

xGF%44.5%

14th percentile

Relative xGF%-0.4

48th percentile

HDCF%48.8%

49th percentile

CF%43.6%

7th percentile

Relative CF%-1.2

42nd percentile

FF%44.3%

10th percentile

GF%46.4%

35th percentile

CF/6054.1

36th percentile

CA/6070.0

1st percentile

ixG/600.17

41st percentile

Goals above expected-2.5

7th percentile

IPP12.8%

4th percentile

PDO101.2

68th percentile

OZS%44.0%

37th percentile

xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.

Play styleDefensive stay-at-home defenseman

Trait percentiles vs. NHL defensemen · 2025-26

Carlo is a physical, conservative defender who focuses on taking away space and moving the puck quickly rather than creating chances himself. He generates offense through rush chances but struggles to drive play offensively or impact defensively at elite levels.

Physical presenceConservative passerPerimeter shooter
Shooting volume
48
Playmaking
9
Zone entries(est.)
76
Forechecking
34
Physicality
73
Defensive impact
14
Puck management
31
Speed
38

Where he shoots from

Slot 3% · Mid-range 19% · Perimeter 78%(95 unblocked shots)

Strengths

  • Physical play at 73rd percentile helps him control the blue line and win battles
  • Rush chance generation at 76th percentile creates transition opportunities
  • Positioning and size compensate for average defensive impact

Watch-outs

  • Playmaking at 9th percentile limits his ability to orchestrate offense from the back
  • Defensive impact at 14th percentile suggests limited high-danger chance prevention
  • Forechecking at 34th percentile means he's not pushing play into opponent territory often

Similar style: Alec Regula (EDM), Erik Gudbranson (CBJ)

Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.

Where his Game Score comes from

2025-26 · 55 GP

Season total +8.1, or +0.15 per game.

Scoring
+3.7
Shooting
+5.0
5-on-5 goals
-0.9
Defense
-1.5
Physical play
+6.2
Puck battles
-2.3
Penalties
-2.1

Game Score gives credit for everything a player does in a game. Goals (1.0) and assists (0.7 primary, 0.5 secondary) count most; shots, blocks, hits, takeaways, penalties drawn, faceoff wins, killing penalties, and holding down the other team's chances add to it. Only mistakes subtract: goals against at 5-on-5, giveaways, penalties taken, faceoff losses, and allowing more chances than an average player would. A player who is there to defend or kill penalties is not marked down for not scoring. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.

Career stats

From the NHL's player records

SeasonLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIM
2008-09QC Int PWColorado Thunderbirds4112—2
2010-1114U AAAColorado Thunderbirds 14U AAA2913922—12
2011-12T1EHLCol. T-birds U164061117—20
2012-13T1EHLCol. T-birds U1641103747—58
2012-13 (playoffs)T1EHLCol. T-birds U164123—6
2012-13 (playoffs)WHLTri-City5101—8
2013-14WHLTri-City7131013-1366
2013-14 (playoffs)WHLTri-City5011-18
2014-15WHLTri-City6342125-1590
2014-15WJC-AUSA5011+10
2014-15 (playoffs)WHLTri-City4011-14
2015-16WHLTri-City5242327+894
2015-16AHLProvidence7011+30
2015-16WHLTri-City Americans5252227+894
2015-16WJC-20USA U207224+94
2015-16 (playoffs)AHLProvidence100000
2016-17NHLBoston Bruins8261016+959
2017-18NHLBoston Bruins76066+1045
2018-19NHLBoston Bruins722810+2247
2018-19 (playoffs)NHLBoston Bruins24224+106
2019-20NHLBoston Bruins6741519+1633
2019-20 (playoffs)NHLBoston Bruins1301108
2020-21NHLBoston Bruins27314+112
2020-21 (playoffs)NHLBoston Bruins800004
2021-22NHLBoston Bruins796915+231
2021-22 (playoffs)NHLBoston Bruins7011-56
2022-23NHLBoston Bruins7531316+4438
2022-23 (playoffs)NHLBoston Bruins7044+24
2023-24NHLBoston Bruins7641014+2342
2023-24 (playoffs)NHLBoston Bruins13314+46
2024-25NHLBoston Bruins63189+224
2024-25NHLToronto Maple Leafs20033+413
2024-25 (playoffs)NHLToronto Maple Leafs13000-48
2025-26NHLToronto Maple Leafs55077+437
2026-27NHLSt. Louis Blues1000015

Every league he has played in, from the NHL's records, regular season and playoffs.

Usage

Last game: @ DAL, Oct 2

Pair 1 with Cam Fowler (10:31 together at 5-on-5)

From the NHL's shift chart.

Latest news

Headlines from news outlets and team blogs

Sentiment & chatter

Fans

—

Beat writers

—

Media

—

Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.

Recent Game Scores

Last 10 games · goals above average

Average +0.09 per game over these 10.

Skating · NHL EDGE

2025-26, as of Oct 2

Top speed
21.7 mph
53rd pct
20+ mph bursts
15
Hardest shot
93.4 mph
70th pct
Distance
141.3 mi
OZ time
38.4%
5th pct
DZ time
43.9%

Age curve

NHL defensemen · production index

202937

At 29, defensemen typically produce 93% of their peak (age 24).

From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.

Contract by season

1 season left

SeasonTeamCap hit% of cap
2026-27STL$3.485M3.4%

UFA after 2026-27. M-NTC. $4.1M in cap hits left. % of cap uses each season's ceiling where the league has set one ($104M this season, $113.5M in 2027-28).